Best plays this week
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MUST START FLEX SIT BENCH OUT / BYETiers are where the week estimate ranks a player. The graded calls are narrower on purpose: a START or SIT only when the matchup can flip a real decision, never a sit on a star (that label was wrong three times out of four last season), and BENCH means "not a call."
Week Est = projection adjusted by the matchup. Floor and Ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile of simulated outcomes. Start% is the share of simulated weeks where he finished inside the startable line (QB12, RB24, WR36, TE12). Move shows how far the matchup pushed him versus his season rank.
How the tiers work
Quarterback
Top 12 START. 13 to 18 are STREAM options. Below that, sit unless your league is deep.
Running back
Top 12 MUST. 13 to 24 START. 25 to 36 FLEX. Below that is a bench week.
Wide receiver
Top 12 MUST. 13 to 30 START. 31 to 48 FLEX for three receiver lineups.
Tight end
Top 6 MUST. 7 to 12 START. 13 to 18 FLEX. The position falls off a cliff after that.
Defense
Ranked by our defense model: the opponent's implied points, the spread, home field, how often the opponent gets sacked and turns it over, our pass rush, and the wind. Blended half and half with Sleeper's projection. Top 4 MUST, 5 to 10 START, 11 to 16 STREAM. The Read column says why.