The scoreboard
Every SMASH and FADE on the matchup board gets frozen before the first kickoff of the week. The next Tuesday we grade each one against what actually happened and publish the hit rate. We cannot edit a frozen call, and you can check the timestamp.
Weeks on the board
This week's locked calls
Start/Sit report card
The whole weekly start/sit board is frozen on Tuesday and graded against actual points the next Tuesday. The question we grade is simple: did our matchup adjustment rank players better than the plain season projection?
Pre-Snap Read report card
The Pre-Snap Read makes a dozen claims about every slate before lock: which chalk is restrictive, who benefits if it fails, which home-favorite backs are under-owned, which games and pairings carry the ceiling, which players earn a core spot. Each one is graded against real points the next Tuesday.
Lineup autopsy
Our own DraftKings entries, scored after the slate against what the engine believed at lock: each lineup's simulated range, its predicted chance to cash, and where the real score landed. Below the 10th percentile of its own range is variance. Inside the range and still short is process. Over a season the table is the calibration curve for the simulator, which is the only honest scorecard a simulator gets.
Showdown lanes, graded
When a Showdown standings export is banked, every model lineup gets its real score and finish against that field, by lane (win / unfound) and by game script, plus whether the game went under its line.
No Showdown export banked yet.
Top-10 archive
The top ten lineups of every contest export we bank, tagged with the shape (quarterback stack size, bring-back, FLEX position), projected ownership at lock and the sub-5% and 20%+ counts. Study the winners backward.
Track record
Every graded week this season, plus last season replayed week by week with the same engine and only the information known each Tuesday. One rule for a hit: a SMASH group scored more than its own average, a FADE group scored less.
How a call gets graded
SMASH
We said that position on that team should beat its own average this week. Hit means the group's fantasy points came in above its average (this season's games blended with last season). Miss means they did not.
FADE
We said the opposite. Hit means the group came in below its average.
The bar
Groups beat their own average about 46% of the time (big weeks pull averages up), so 46% is the coin flip here, not 50%. Anything we cannot beat that on, we stop publishing. That rule applies to us the same as it applies to anyone we audit.