Start or sit
Two players. One call.
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Player A
VS
Player B
How the call is made
It is a distribution, not a number
Every player's week is simulated, so we carry a floor (the 10th percentile), a ceiling (the 90th) and everything between. Two players projected for the same points are not the same play when one of them is far swingier.
The number is a head-to-head
We compare the two distributions directly, so the answer is the share of simulated weeks one outscores the other. 51% is a coin flip and we say so. Anything past 60% is a real edge.
We show how often we are right
Every position carries how well our lines have tracked real scores in the weeks we have graded. When our read at a position is weak, this page says so instead of hiding it. See the receipts