Decided by the data,
not the takes.
Free weekly tools built on real backtests of eleven seasons. Every call we publish gets locked before kickoff and graded in public the next week. Everyone punts. We go for it.
Open this week's board Get it every TuesdayHow much the draft board explains
Consensus ADP explained 15% of how players actually finished, 2014 to 2024. The other 85% is where the season is won.
Zero RB, playoff odds
Across thousands of simulated drafts on real ADP, Zero RB cut playoff odds by 11 points. Hero RB by 23. Nothing beat just taking value.
Drafts we simulated to find the QB round
A first round quarterback cost 15 playoff points. Rounds 4 to 6 were free. We keep the receipts on all of it.
This week's matchup board
Loading the slate...
Implied = the points Vegas expects that team to score. m scores blend the scoring environment, pace, and how generous the opponent has been to each position after adjusting for who they faced. Full board with every column
Best plays this week
Season projection times matchup. The full tiered list, every position, is on the Start/Sit page.
Under-owned, should be rostered
Players under 60% owned on ESPN who project inside a starting lineup in 10 or 12 team leagues.
Injuries and news
The feed that switches players off inside every engine here. Out, doubtful, IR, suspended and PUP are zeroed; questionable is flagged.
Loading...
The scoreboard
Advice sites tell you what to do. We also tell you how we did.
Calls locked
Loading...
Graded next
Every SMASH and FADE call gets scored against what actually happened, published Tuesday morning. Misses included.
Why it matters
A frozen call cannot be quietly edited after the games. That is the whole point. See the receipts
Studies
We do not do hot takes. We run the study, show the method, and publish the misses.
Does Zero RB actually win?
We simulated a decade of drafts on real ADP and scored them with real outcomes. The trendy strategies lost.
Your draft slot is not why you lost
8,000 simulated drafts. No slot has a real edge once you use honest error bars. Coming soon.
ADP ages like milk
Live ADP beats last year's points at predicting this year, at every position. Stale ADP loses everywhere. Coming soon.
Get the board every Tuesday
One email a week. The matchup board, the under-owned list, and last week's grades. Free.