Shot quality, matchups and what actually moves fantasy points
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Expected fantasy pointsDefense vs positionShot zones vs defenseTested before it was publishedWhat we tested
Expected fantasy points (XFP)
Cold and hot shooters, tracked every night
Defense vs position
Where each defense lets you shoot
How to read it
XFP
Expected fantasy points: the DraftKings points a player's game was worth at his own normal shooting. Each shot starts at the league's rate for that spot on the floor and that kind of shot (dunk, layup, hook, floater, jumper), then moves by how far above or below that rate he has made those shots in his earlier games (fully trusted after about 250 attempts). Free throws at his own rate. Rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and turnovers count as they happened.
Gap
Actual DK points minus XFP, per game: how far a player ran above or below his own norm. Over a few games that is mostly luck and it comes back; the tracker below scores it every night.
Estimate
The tested blend: 75% XFP and 25% actual, per game. On 2024-25 and 2025-26 it predicted the next game better than a player's actual average did, in both seasons and at every projection level, without projecting the stars low.
DvP
DraftKings points each defense allows to guards, wings and bigs compared with what those same players usually score, beyond the defense's overall level. The big number is shrunk by how much DvP repeats from one half of a season to the other; the small number is the raw value.
Shot zones
At the rim (0-3 ft), paint (4-9), short mid (10-15), long mid (16+ twos), corner 3, above-the-break 3. Share = how much more or less often opponents shoot from there than against the average defense. Points per shot are against the league's expectation for those same shots.
Data
Every play of every regular season since 1996-97 (public play-by-play; shot locations from 2016-17). Box scores rebuilt from the plays match the official ones: points 100%, every other stat 99.8% or better.
Looking for today's NBA slate? See the Expert Consensus board.