4th & Data
NBA DFS

Value plays

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Public projection: sites + sportsbooks + KalshiClick a column to sort

How to read it

Projection

Projection = the public consensus: DailyFantasyFuel, FantasyPros and numberFire (weight 1 each), the sportsbooks' player props and Kalshi's player markets (weight 2 each, converted to DraftKings points the same way). The small number is how many sources had him.

Value and ceiling

Value = projected DraftKings points per $1,000 of salary (5 is the usual bar). Ceiling = his 90th-percentile night, from the projection and his own game-to-game spread since 2024-25.

Ownership and leverage

Projected ownership: DailyFantasyFuel's when posted, otherwise our salary-weighted estimate. Leverage = how much higher his ceiling value ranks than his ownership: positive = under-owned for what he can score.

Streak

DraftKings points per game above (+) or below (-) his own shooting norm over the last 10 games. Cold shooters tend to bounce back: see expected points.