Data Backed Bets
Our Best Bets. NFL player prop unders where our model and the matchup agree. Posted the moment they qualify, graded in public.
Our model + a top 10 defense17-4 in Weeks 1-51 unit eachThis week
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Results
Every bet we have posted, graded at the line and price it was posted with. A push or a player who does not play is no action.
How it works
Our model
It scores every player prop from each player's hit rates, the price and the matchup, and keeps only the unders inside the score range that has held up. It went 117-68 (63%) in Weeks 1-5.
The matchup
A bet qualifies only when the opponent is a top 10 defense against that exact stat for that position, from our points allowed data. Model plus a top 10 defense went 17-4 in Weeks 1-5. We never bet an under against a soft defense.
His recent games
Each bet also shows how he did against the line in his earlier games this season. That is there for context. The bet is our model plus the top 10 defense.
Prices and grading
Each bet shows the best sportsbook price when it was posted, and it is graded at that line and price, 1 unit each. Every bet stays on this page, win or lose. 21+. Bet responsibly.